HIHI on AI

Daily AI intelligence

The homepage for everything moving in AI.

Track new AI products, prediction markets, research, media, models, public equities, private funding, and the signals that matter before they become consensus.

Explore launches Submit a signal
LaunchesLive signal layer
MarketsLive signal layer
MediaLive signal layer
ResearchLive signal layer
IndexLive signal layer

Top story

Industrial policy for the Intelligence Age

heat 95

Market signal

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?

92% / Polymarket

Research

Provenance-Grounded Gating and Adaptive Recovery in Synthetic Post-Training Data Curation

arXiv

Launch

Fundraisly

+100 momentum

Product surface

Built as a daily operating dashboard, not a news archive.

Each module is designed to become dynamic through source ingestion, scoring, human curation, and realtime updates.

Launches

Rank new AI products, agents, models, APIs, and open-source projects by real-world usefulness.

Markets

Track AI-related prediction markets, probability moves, volumes, and event risk.

Media

Curate news, podcasts, interviews, newsletters, and video into concise signal briefs.

Research

Summarize papers, model cards, benchmarks, evals, and safety reports for practitioners.

Index

Map public and private AI exposure across compute, cloud, apps, infra, energy, and data.

Capital

Follow funding rounds, valuation changes, strategic investments, and ecosystem concentration.

Models

Compare frontier, open-weight, coding, reasoning, multimodal, and specialist AI models.

Launch rankings

Daily AI launches ranked by momentum.

Product Hunt-style discovery for AI tools, models, agents, APIs, and open-source releases.

999

Fundraisly

hot

Product Hunt / 1,199 votes

AI fundraising agent that finds investors and books meetings

View launch
+100
999

Kilo Code v7 for VS Code

hot

Product Hunt / 912 votes

Parallel agents, diff reviewer, and multi-model comparisons

View launch
+100
999

Brew

hot

Product Hunt / 902 votes

Like Claude design for email marketing

View launch
+100

Prediction markets

AI bets, odds, and probability moves in one dashboard.

Media feed

News, podcasts, and interviews without the noise.

News

Industrial policy for the Intelligence Age

Explore our ambitious, people-first industrial policy ideas for the AI era—focused on expanding opportunity, sharing prosperity, and building resilient institutions as advanced intelligence evolves.

News

What Codex unlocks for Notion

How Notion uses Codex to one-shot specs, build AI Voice Input for the web, and multiply engineering power across small teams.

News

How engineers at Nextdoor use Codex to build without limits

How engineers at Nextdoor use Codex with GPT-5.5 to investigate hard-to-reproduce issues, build across platforms, and focus on product outcomes.

Research corner

Papers, model cards, and evals translated for operators.

arXiv

Provenance-Grounded Gating and Adaptive Recovery in Synthetic Post-Training Data Curation

Synthetic post-training pipelines commonly filter generated samples with reward models or holistic LLM judges, yet two practices remain rarely examined together: whether the filtering signal is grounded in the source evidence that induced each generation, and whether rejected samples can be systematically recovered rather than permanently discarded. We present a controlled study of both questions across gate configurations, recovery strategies, and generator scales, using adversarially injected corpora to provide ground-truth failure labels. We find that exact source provenance improves faithfulness gating for stronger judges, that hallucination and reward gates reject largely disjoint sampl

arXiv

Robust Regression of General ReLUs with Queries

We study the task of agnostically learning general (as opposed to homogeneous) ReLUs under the Gaussian distribution with respect to the squared loss. In the passive learning setting, recent work gave a computationally efficient algorithm that uses $poly(d,1/ε)$ labeled examples and outputs a hypothesis with error $O(opt)+ε$, where $opt$ is the squared loss of the best fit ReLU. Here we focus on the interactive setting, where the learner has some form of query access to the labels of unlabeled examples. Our main result is the first computationally efficient learner that uses $d polylog(1/ε)+\tilde{O}(\min\{1/p, 1/ε\})$ black-box label queries, where $p$ is the bias of the target function, an

arXiv

First-Order Trajectory Matching: Fast Ensemble Predictions of Chaotic, Turbulent, Stochastic Systems

We introduce First-Order Trajectory Matching (FTM), a surrogate-modeling method that learns the first-order local transport of probability mass from trajectories of stochastic systems. By matching the symmetric first-order motion of trajectories, FTM learns the probability current velocity, whose flow preserves time marginals to match ensemble averages, while also capturing current-like trajectory quantities such as fluxes, circulations, and barrier-crossing currents. FTM learns the current velocity directly from trajectories, avoiding drift, diffusion, and score estimation. Our stability analysis separates discretization error from sampling variance and shows that the one-step simulation-fr

arXiv

Data assimilation for subsurface flow using latent diffusion model parameterization: performance of ensemble-Kalman and Monte Carlo techniques

Data assimilation (DA) in subsurface flow entails calibrating model parameters to match observed data, typically at wells, while preserving geological realism. Latent diffusion models (LDMs) provide efficient mappings from high-dimensional geological model space to a low-dimensional latent variable, reducing the dimensionality of the inverse problem while maintaining plausibility in posterior geomodels. However, the high nonlinearity in the LDM mapping may degrade the performance of Kalman-gain-based ensemble updates. We present a systematic comparison of DA algorithms applied to large-scale 3D channelized geomodels with hierarchical geological uncertainty. We compare model-space and latent-

arXiv

OncoTraj: a public benchmark for longitudinal resistance prediction in EGFR-mutant non-small-cell lung cancer on osimertinib

Resistance to first-line osimertinib in EGFR-mutant non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) is the canonical example of predictable clonal evolution under therapeutic pressure, yet no public benchmark exists for training or evaluating computational models on the corresponding longitudinal patient trajectories. We introduce OncoTraj, a public benchmark of 813 EGFR-mutant NSCLC patients receiving first-line osimertinib, harmonized from three real-world clinical-genomic sources: MSK-CHORD (672 patients), AACR Project GENIE BPC NSCLC (34 patients), and the FLAURA molecular-resistance supplement (107 patients). OncoTraj defines three locked tasks: (A) binary classification of progression by a fixed 12

arXiv

Efficiently Learning Drifting Halfspaces with Massart Noise

We study the problem of learning a drifting concept in the presence of Massart noise. In this framework, an online learner has access to a history of independent samples whose labels are noisy versions of a target concept that may change from round to round. The goal is to output, in each round, a hypothesis with small prediction error. We study the complexity of this learning problem for the fundamental class of margin-separable linear classifiers (halfspaces). On the positive side, we give a computationally efficient learner achieving error $η+ \tilde O(Δ^{1/3}/γ)$, where $η$ upper bounds the Massart noise rate, $Δ$ is the drift rate, and $γ$ is the margin. Interestingly, in the realizable

arXiv

ABC-Bench: An Agentic Bio-Capabilities Benchmark for Biosecurity

Large language models (LLMs) are rapidly acquiring capabilities relevant to biological research, from literature synthesis to interpretation of experimental data. Increasingly, LLM agents can also perform in silico biology tasks that previously required experienced human biologists. These emerging AI capabilities offer new opportunities for scientific discovery and biomedical advances, but they also shift the landscape of biosecurity risks. To address this, we introduce the Agentic Bio-Capabilities Benchmark (ABC-Bench), a suite of tasks to measure agentic biosecurity-relevant capabilities. ABC-Bench evaluates LLM agents on both benign and dual-use biology tasks: writing code to operate liqu

arXiv

Itô maps for any-step SDEs

Recent one-step generative models accelerate sampling by learning deterministic flow maps of the underlying dynamics. These methods rely on learning from ordinary differential equations, leaving open how to define an exact distillation procedure for stochastic dynamics. We introduce the Itô map, an any-step stochastic flow map that takes an intermediate state and Brownian path and predicts future states in a single pass. The Itô map formulation yields novel estimators for inference-time control by providing cheap, differentiable access to posterior samples. Empirically, Itô maps produce diverse, conditionally valid endpoint samples from fixed intermediate states and support strong steering p

arXiv

COGENT: Continuous Graph Emulators with Neural Ordinary Differential Equations for Long-Term Physical Forecasting

In this work, we present COGENT, a continuous graph emulator with Neural Ordinary Differential Equations for long-term physical forecasting on irregular geospatial meshes. COGENT encodes a finite history of system states and associated forcing fields and external forcings with a graph-based history encoder, producing node-wise context vectors that capture both local spatial interactions and temporal evolution. These context vectors initialize and condition a latent Neural Ordinary Differential Equation whose dynamics are driven by interpolated future forcings and explicit relative rollout time. By modeling the forecast trajectory as a continuous latent dynamical system, COGENT can generate p

arXiv

ReasonAlloc: Hierarchical Decoding-Time KV Cache Budget Allocation for Reasoning Models

Long chain-of-thought (CoT) trajectories in large language model (LLM) reasoning cause severe inference bottlenecks due to rapid key-value (KV) cache growth. Current decoding-time compression methods mitigate this issue via token eviction, but typically assume a uniform budget distribution across all layers and heads. In contrast, existing non-uniform budget allocation methods are predominantly designed for the static prompt prefill phase, and they do not capture the stepwise context demands of autoregressive reasoning. To bridge this gap, we propose ReasonAlloc, a training-free framework that recasts decoding-time KV compression as a hierarchical budget allocation problem. ReasonAlloc opera

arXiv

Flaws in the LLM Automation Narrative

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly described as performing at the level of human experts on knowledge economy tasks. These claims are primarily based on how LLMs perform on benchmarking tasks that measure average performance across standardized datasets. Primary limitations of many benchmarking tasks are that they often measure performance based on content directly included in LLM training data, and they frequently do not assess the reliability of LLM performance or the magnitude of LLM errors. However, in high stakes contexts, these qualities are critically important. Through a novel LLM benchmarking task that requires writing computer code to complete a data analysis task, we co

arXiv

Multi-Faceted Interactivity Alignment in Full-Duplex Speech Models

Full-duplex spoken dialogue models can listen and speak simultaneously, making them a promising architecture for natural conversation. However, current models are trained solely with supervised learning through token-level likelihood maximization, which does not directly optimize interaction-level behaviors, causing interactivity issues such as excessive silence and ill-timed turn-taking. Recent work has applied reinforcement learning (RL) to improve interactivity, but existing methods address only a limited set of interactive behaviors in their rewards. In this work, we propose a post-training alignment method that comprehensively improves the interactivity of full-duplex spoken dialogue mo

arXiv

Piper: A Programmable Distributed Training System

Large-scale model training increasingly relies on composing multiple parallelism strategies, such as data, pipeline, and expert parallelism, together with memory-saving optimizations like ZeRO. Deployed systems for foundation model pretraining often rely on human experts to manually design a high-level parallelism strategy then implement the corresponding low-level execution strategy, making it difficult to adapt the system to new strategies. Meanwhile, many general-purpose frameworks are more flexible but their implementations are still tied to a fixed set of common parallelism strategies, making it challenging to integrate state-of-the-art strategies. We present Piper, a user-controllable

arXiv

Algorithmic and Minimax Complexities in Kernel Bandits

Gaussian-process upper confidence bound (GP-UCB) and decision-estimation-coefficient (DEC) methods may appear, at first sight, to belong to different theories. This paper places the two viewpoints in a common algorithmic-information language for frequentist RKHS bandits. GP-UCB fixes an algorithmic, rather than true, Gaussian-process prior and exploits realized-trajectory complexity together with computational tractability, whereas MAMS optimizes a robust class-wide MAIR/DEC envelope. Through the unified MAIR framework and heterogeneous positive-semidefinite algorithmic priors, we generalize both the GP-UCB analysis and the MAMS algorithm, propose a safeguarded master that combines their adv

arXiv

Predicting Future Behaviors in Reasoning Models Enables Better Steering

Deployed large reasoning models (LRMs) often behave unexpectedly. Test-time steering controls LRM outputs by intervening on their hidden representations, but it can degrade output quality. We argue that prior steering work implicitly relies on internal features that detect behavior in already generated text. We show that these detection features are poor predictors of future behavioral outcomes, and thus not the natural intervention target. Instead, we train activation probes to predict future behavior likelihoods from intermediate reasoning steps. These probes predict the most likely behavior with 64%-91% accuracy, revealing a separate type of internal prediction features. Building on these

arXiv

The Role of Feedback Alignment in Self-Distillation

Conditioning a language model on additional context, such as feedback on a previous attempt, typically improves its response. Self-distillation trains the model to retain this improvement when the context is not present. The method works by matching the model's output distribution under two settings: a student that sees only the question, and a self-teacher that also sees the context. What the model learns therefore depends on what context the self-teacher receives, yet the design of this context remains largely unexplored. We study context design for self-distillation by training a solver on feedback from a frozen critic. We compare three conditions: (i) a binary reward (GRPO), (ii) the ref

arXiv

Data Journalist Agent: Transforming Data into Verifiable Multimodal Stories

Data tells stories that shape society; the data journalist's job is to turn raw information into stories non-experts can trust. A high-quality news feature takes a newsroom team weeks: hunting for context, running statistics, choosing an angle, and designing visuals. Recent agents handle individual steps well: data-science agents close the analysis loop, while design agents synthesize beautiful websites. But can an agent serve as a data journalist end to end? We introduce Data Journalist Agent (Data2Story), a multi-agent framework that orchestrates specialized roles into a single virtual newsroom. Data2Story contributes two innovations. (i) Claims are evidence-grounded: an Inspector links ev

arXiv

EEVEE: Towards Test-time Prompt Learning in the Real World for Self-Improving Agents

In this paper, we propose EEVEE, the first multi-dataset test-time prompt learning framework for LLM agents, enabling test-time prompt learning under real-world task streams. Existing methods are largely designed for single-dataset settings, while real-world applications require models to handle heterogeneous input streams drawn from multiple datasets, domains, and task distributions, limiting their practical applicability. To mitigate cross-dataset interference, EEVEE introduces a router that partitions incoming inputs into task clusters and assigns them to suitable prompt configurations. This design is optimized via a router-prompt co-evolution strategy, which employs interleaved router an

arXiv

A Unifying Lens on Supervised Fine-Tuning Through Target Distribution Design

Supervised fine-tuning (SFT) typically maximizes the likelihood of every token in a demonstrated trajectory. However, an observed token can be non-unique, noisy, or misaligned with the model prior. Strictly fitting toward this one-hot target may be suboptimal, especially when the pretrained model encodes a rich knowledge prior. In this work, we reinterpret SFT as target distribution design: instead of studying only the loss objective, we analyze the token-level target that the loss drives the model to match. We introduce the Q-target framework, which decomposes SFT supervision into two explicit choices: (1) how strongly to rely on the observed token, and (2) how to allocate the remaining pro

arXiv

When to Align, When to Predict: A Phase Diagram for Multimodal Learning

Cross-modal alignment (CA) and cross-modal prediction (CP) are the dominant paradigms for multimodal representation learning, yet there is no systematic understanding of when each succeeds, when each fails, and when cross-modal training helps at all -- a gap that leaves practitioners, especially in scientific domains like biomedicine or astrophysics, with heterogeneous instruments and multiple levels of organization and measurement, unable to diagnose why standard methods underperform the best single modality. We develop a unified linear framework that addresses both questions. Under a spiked signal-plus-noise model with structured cross-modal nuisance correlation, we derive separation ratio

Investment index

Public and private AI exposure, organized by the stack.

Compute

NVIDIA / AMD / Broadcom / TSMC / ASML / Arm

Accelerator supply, networking, packaging, and utilization remain the central AI bottleneck.

Cloud and platforms

Microsoft / Amazon / Google / Oracle / CoreWeave

Distribution and committed capacity shape which model companies can scale.

Applications

OpenAI / Anthropic / Perplexity / Runway / Harvey

The application layer is splitting into consumer assistants and vertical workflow systems.

Energy and infrastructure

Utilities / Data centers / Cooling / Storage / Networking

Power contracts and data center approvals are turning into AI growth indicators.

Realtime plan

Dynamic data from day one, editorial quality before automation.

Manual curation

Start with admin-approved seed data and daily editorial briefs.

Scheduled ingestion

Pull RSS, arXiv, market APIs, launch feeds, and company updates every 15 minutes.

Realtime surfaces

Use Supabase Realtime for odds changes, breaking items, and admin publish events.